Dolphins vs Packers odds
The NFL’s Christmas Day slate kicks off with a matchup between the two most profitable quarterbacks to spread. Aaron Rodgers has his ATS of 125-91-4 (58%) and Tua Tagovailoa boasts his 19-13-1 (59%) career ATS mark.
So which side of the Packers vs Dolphins pick you should be on to kick off your holiday betting fest? Read our detailed analysis below before making your choice.
Packers vs Dolphins Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdown below to show or hide how the Packers and Dolphins match up statistically.
Packers vs. Dolphins DVOA Breakdown
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The Packers’ offense is shaping up just in time for a stretch run, averaging 26.6 points per game over the last five games after averaging 17.1 points per game over the first nine.
Rodgers should be able to pull off a Dolphins defense that enables the third-highest completion percentage (68.3%) and sixth-most passing yards (246.3) and the fourth-lowest percentage of pass interceptions (1.3%). is.
Betting on Green Bay vs Miami fan duel
Roughly speaking, the Dolphins play Man Coverage at the 3rd highest rate and Blitz at the 7th highest rate. Defensively his coordinator Josh his boyars have remained true to that philosophy despite his one-year down from being a thrashed secondary and top-his cornerback. Xavien Howard, the 54.1 PFF The coverage grade ranks 95th among 121 qualified cornerbacks.
Even at this stage in Rodgers’ career, this type of strategy tends to be fruitless. Because he is his third best against the blitz, averaging over a yard more attempts against men than against zones.
Christian Watson gives Rogers a legitimate man-beater from the outside. The rookie second-round pick is averaging 4.29 yards-to-man coverage per route run this season, second in the league among 96 eligible wide receivers, according to the PFF.
Watson’s presence opens up the entire offense and takes the pressure off Allen Lazard. Allen Lazard is quietly in the top 25 in yards-to-mans coverage per route (2.30).
The Packers have been second in offensive DVOA since Week 10, so it’s no surprise that their rise coincides with Watson’s breakout three.touchdown game with cowboys — Beginning of a five-game span that averaged 71.8 and scored an incredible eight touchdowns receiving yard per game.
The Dolphins’ best attribute on defense is their ability to stop runs, but the Packers boast a top three rushing offense. Aaron Jones, A. rams It’s a defense that ranks among the top five against runs, so expect the Packers to be able to run even in the face of above-average rush defenses.
Miami ranks 27th in allowed third down conversion rate (43.7%) and 26th in allowed red zone conversion rate (62.0%), so the Packers are calculating points for moving the ball to hold.
Of course, with Tagovailoa averaging 27.0 points in the 11 games he’s started and finished, you should expect the Dolphins to do the same when they have the ball. But while the Packers’ offense is gaining momentum, the Dolphins’ offense is in trouble.
Tagovailoa leads the league in DVOA in passes to center and also leads the league in percentage of pass attempts to center of the field (47%). Disrupts the timing of the entire pass offense.
This made Tagovailoa significantly less efficient in the final four games compared to the first eight.
- First 8 games: 71.0% completions, 9.13 yards per attempt, 7.3% touchdowns, 1.2% interceptions
- Last 4 matches: 52.8% completions, 7.66 yards per attempt, 4.7% touchdowns, 1.6% interceptions
Completion rates aside, those are still decent numbers, but they’re nowhere near the elite form he showed at the start of the season. It is an inconsistent offense.
Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry is sometimes criticized for his zone-heavy strategy, but his coverage tends to restrict opponents to midfield and beyond. The Packers rank him 12th in middle passes in his DVOA and 3rd in middle passes over 15 yards.
And despite a rough start to the season with Justin Jefferson gaining 184 yards in Week 1, the Packers’ secondary is allowing just 135.2 yards per game to wide receivers (135.2), which is Tyreek’s. A good sign when facing Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
I try not to worry too much about the Dolphins’ three-game losing streak. 49ers, charger When invoice But I think it’s clear to anyone who’s watched these matches that there’s more to the offense’s recent struggles than just the intensity of the schedule.
The Packers boast a Top 8 pass defense in their own right, and should be able to replicate much of what worked diagrammatically for those teams against the Dolphins’ offense.
Green Bay’s defense is weak against runs, but Mike McDaniel oversees a run-heavy offense as the 49ers’ offensive coordinator, and as the Dolphins’ head coach, his offense is averaging 22.4 rushes per game. record (second-lowest in the league).
Interestingly, the Dolphins have outright lost two of their top three rushing performances this season.
It’s also worth noting that there’s rain in the forecast, but the Packers have the best run offense and worst run defense in this game, while the Dolphins have the best pass offense and worst run defense. I don’t think either team has an edge because they have the pass. defense.
Once upon a time there was talk that playing in Florida was Kryptonite for Rogers, who had a few bad games in late 2014.
The Packers’ strengths align well with the Dolphins’ weaknesses, but not necessarily the other way around.
The Dolphins got off to a running start this year while the Packers stumbled out of the gate, but in their current form they are evenly tied despite an 8-6 vs. 6-8 matchup that might otherwise indicate otherwise. I am doing it.
In fact, underdogs have historically been crushed in Week 16 when facing opponents like the Dolphins.according to us action lab According to the data, the Week 16 underdog went 46-24-3 (66%) ATS when facing opponents who won 6-8 since 2005.
Again, this is the type of spot you want to back Rogers up. Since Matt LaFleur became Green Bay’s head coach, Rodgers has been 11-4 ATS as a dog, covering an average of 2.8 points per game and winning 10 of his 15 outright games.
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