College Football Bowl Projections: Oklahoma State Jumps Into New Year’s Six As Top Teams Tested In Week 5

It’s not easy to be king. Georgia takes everyone’s best chance and Missouri’s was almost good enough on Saturday. The Bulldogs rallied with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to beat the Tigers and remain at No. 1 in this week’s College Football Playoff projection.

Earlier in the day, projected No. 3 Alabama saw reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young injured in the first half in Arkansas. Reserve quarterback Jalen Milroe came off the bench to lead the Crimson Tide to a big win. Clemson also held on to his expected No. 4 seed after a 30-20 win over NC State. The Wolfpack are still projected onto the ACC spot in the Orange Bowl. Ohio State was the only team in our CFP projection that had it easy. Rutgers was no match for the expected No. 2 seed Buckeyes in a 49-10 defeat.

College football play-off

Where the wheels seemed to come off Saturday was for the Sooner Schooner. Oklahoma gave up 41 first-half points in a 55-24 loss at TCU. The Sooners have fallen completely out of the New Year’s six bowl projections and have been replaced by the expected Big 12 champion Oklahoma State. The Cowboys took a big win at Baylor and now appear to be the favorite in the conference race.

The Pac-12 race for the Rose Bowl, or possibly the CFP, will heat up in the coming weeks. Favorite Utah faces UCLA undefeated next Saturday; it turns around and hosts USC the following week. The Trojans face a strong team from Washington State at home, ahead of the battle with the Utes. The Bruins have a week off after the game in Utah to prepare for a trip to Oregon. The only matchup between those four teams that is not played in the regular season is USC vs. Oregon.

If one of those four comes out undefeated and earns a spot in the CFP, it’s possible two of the others could play in New Year’s Six matches.

New Year’s Six bowl games

There are still four teams with sub-.500 records in this week’s bowl projections, but only three of them are 5-7. Still projected as 5-6, Army West Point gets a bowl placement despite a loss to the state of Georgia. The Black Knights are expected to finish 6-6 overall, but with two wins over FCS opponents, only one of them will ultimately count towards bowl eligibility.

This week, some questions came in about whether James Madison would qualify for bowls if there aren’t enough teams to fill the seats. Although there is a relatively new stipulation for a team transferring to FBS to go to a bowl – if it would otherwise have been eligible and if there is an opening — that only applies to teams in the final year of their transition to FBS. For James Madison, that’s next season.

Can’t see your team? Check out the rest of Jerry Palm’s bowl projections after Week 5.